Hi Peter,
I am thinking about bringing along real time set ups for the whole class to try and find things wrong with, or whats right with the set ups, weekly and daily, asx and fx Then we all can benefit.
Would that cover the ASIC if the students instigated the dissucussion?
Definately no recommendation to trade....just comments on our technical analst skills?
Cheers
Tony

Would it be acceptable to say whether someone has drawn legitimate lines or not, not necessairly commenting on whether the trade is legitimate?

Hi Guys

If i could throw my two bobs in...

unfortuantely flags, pennants, frl and so forth are not an exact science... it does require human judgement and this judgement is only developed through making mistakes and errors. I can't recommend highly enough putting Market Analyst in training mode and doing a 'walk-forward' back test. You can't see the future this way, you simply say yes ill trade this or no I wont trade this and you should test it as if it were real money.

If you can't achieve a success rate of >60/70% then throw it out, or think about some other criteria.

The other thing is this, I might see something on the chart that Rob/Peter wouldn't trade, but is a setup that I have personally tested and found to work most of the time. The same goes with Pete/Rob, they are both independent traders in their own right, and have their own trading plan... I think I've got to the stage where I can trust my own analysis, if you can't do that yet, then you aren't confident in your trading plan...

Personally, I wouldn't ask for Peter/Rob's opinion on a live chart, neither is right 100% of the time anyway (no one is!)... Back yourself , take a punt and trade!

If I ever educated someone from scratch, I think I'd start them off with a pure mechanical system, one with exact rules and no human judgement. The ultimate drawback of using chart patterns is that when you first start off, you don't know if a loss is due to probabilities or poor identification. They are different in the context of trading a system consistently.

cheers
D
who's falling asleep now...

Hi Deon,
The Big But!
Agree with backtesting MA on training mode...been there heaps, backtesting is looking good, do a few demo account trades...then go live and it turns into loss after loss.
Whats changed...the market setiment I think plus over 100 hours of testing is now wasted.
I wonder if our losses are better spent on further education.
By looking at live examples I would hope to be furthering our education of trying to forcast market setiment.
Acofes web site is full of testomonies of people adding to their income or living off trading...wonder if they are now?
Or like you suggested have they gone fishing for the last 12 -18 months?
Cheers
Tony

Hi Tony

The market has 3 conditions - bullish, bearish & sideways

Whenever I test a strategy I try to capture all three conditions;

2000-2001 : sideways
2001-2002 : bearish (you can also use 08-09)
2004-2006 : bullish

There are strategies that will work very well in some markets and not in others; your horizontal strategy comes to mind - remember a few months ago it was doing really well for you - and I said it's because market conditions were really good for that type of strategy; but in sideway moving, it will not work. Right now, the market is very indecisive (have a look at daily chart for the xjo and you will see a H&S pattern), and this kind of markets won't suit a horizontal strategy...

A good trader knows when to trade... AND also when NOT to trade...

Also, one can't 'forecast market sentiment' ... that is a 'feeling' you have to get yourself. For example, in December of 2007, ALL the banks had a double top/tripple top/head and shoulders pattern. Many of the miners also topped... The XJO had made a lower high and lower low... This was a fantastic sign to a trader that the market was turning while the broader population thought it was another 'retracement'. Around February this year, there were signs it would bounce, many of the miners had accumulation patterns/double bottom/rounded bottoms etc. and it was a good sign a run was about to come... and it went up some 30%.

I also like to watch the markets reaction to news, in early february it started going up on bad news (sign of strength), but 3 weeks ago, it started going down on bad news... sign of weakness!

cheers
D

Thanks Peter.
Happy to see you guys are reasonably flexible with training times. An earlier time, ie. mid-morning or around midday
would suit me personally. I know a couple of ther students also would prefer an earlier time. If you could see your way clear to perhaps move the 4-6 timeslot forward to mid-morning or midday would be perfect. I realise it would be a trial thingy, but it might just be popular.
Thanks
JR